商務英語文章(帶中文翻譯)

?。ㄒ唬?/p>

　World economy

　 The jobs crisis 失業危機 It’s coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse 不論政府如何努力，失業危機已經到來。不過政府可以在這場危機中起到關鍵作用

　Illustration by Belle Mellor

　NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.

　再沒有什么比關于經濟大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會大量失業的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見于人們緊繃的面容，襤褸的衣衫，還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發的政治極端主義給社會留下污點；失業問題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計劃和失業救濟金方案都發軔于那些灰暗的失業時期；受惠于這些計劃，至少發達國家的人們不再因為失業而陷入窮困。

　Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do?

　 即使是最悲觀的預計都不認為眼下的衰退會接近大蕭條的程度，后者使美國經濟縮水四分之一，四分之一的就業人口失去工作。但隨著世界經濟出現自 1930 年代以來的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿易 80 年來的最快速萎縮，大規模失業的惡魘再度凸顯，并且拋出了和大蕭條時期一樣的大問題：政府應該做些什么？

　Join the queue 加入失業隊伍

　In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes.

　富裕國家的失業問題在衰退肇始的美國最為顯著。自從 07 年 12 月經濟陷入低迷以來，美國靈活的勞動力市場已經溢出了 440 萬份失業，其中在過去三個月內每月產生了 60 萬份。二月的失業率躍升至 8.1%，是 25 年來的最高數字。比起有紀錄的半個世紀內的任何時期，眼下失業的美國人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當很多家庭的財政依靠雙職工收入的時候，這種情況尤其令人堪憂。

　But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society.

　 然而顯而易見的是，失業問題的沉重打擊遠不止于美國和英國。日本的生產量比其他富裕經濟體下降得更快。盡管失業率尚低，但臨時工當中快速增長的失業大軍顯示了“雙層勞工市場”的不公平性，加劇了一個平等社會中的緊張。

　In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.

　在歐洲，建筑業熱潮遭遇重創的西班牙和愛爾蘭等國失業速度增長最快，而在其他地方則初現端倪。很多歐洲國家的失業率都低于美國，但也許這只是因為它們有更加嚴格的勞工市場，從而對下降的市場需求適應更慢。面對著快速萎縮的歐洲經濟，沒有人會懷疑更糟糕的就業局面就在眼前。到 2010 年底，多數富裕國家的失業率可能會超過 10%。

　In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of

　workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.

　發展中國家的情況就不一樣了，只不過結果會更人頭疼。隨著貿易萎縮，數以百萬計的工人正失去他們在全球供應鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉向非正式工作或者回到農村，伴隨而來的是貧困問題的抬頭。世界銀行預計，今年將有約 5300 萬人降到極端貧困線以下。

　 Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help. That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.

　政治上，政府必須全力介入進行援助。這一方面是因為多年以來資本在利潤中占去了很大份額，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因為給了銀行萬億計美元的當政者們承擔著巨大的壓力，需要大量注資來挽救就業崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來衡量。錯誤的決策反倒會弄巧成拙。自 1970 年代和 1980 年代初期的經濟衰退以來，歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動力市場就使失業率幾十年來居高不下。

　Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.

　 各國政府正為勞動者提供大量的短期援助。美國的社會保障體系在富裕國家中處于最低，而最近出臺的經濟刺激計劃中，擴大失業救濟金惠及面恰恰是計劃中的一部分。日本為長期以來受忽視的“非固定”勞動者群體提供社會援助。不過總的來說，比起失業補助，資助企業以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國家通過縮短每周工作日或強制休假來滿足勞工薪資。

　These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.

　這些措施在一定時限內是合理的：因為在短期內，政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀，就業危機不大可能只在短期內存在。即便經濟衰退很快結束（而且幾乎不可能發生），引起這場危機的陰云——資金短缺和過度借貸——將在接下來繼續籠罩世界經濟長達數年。更有甚者，不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員，很多昔日的就業崗位會一去不復返。人們將被迫告別現有職位，轉行進入新崗位。

　A difficult dance 艱難的舞步

　Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire.

　 在接下來的幾年中，政治家們不得不做出一個 180 度的艱難政策轉變：因為從長遠來看，他們需要一個靈活的勞動力市場。這意味著廢除工作補貼計劃，去除受保護勞工的特權，以及幫助企業更方便地裁員從而進行重組。像日本這樣具有雙層勞動力結構的國家，大量埋頭苦干的臨時勞工缺乏就業保障，而被嬌生慣養的上層員工卻能享受到多重保護。這種差別需要通過嚴格上層員工的裁汰制度加以消除。

　The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created. The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fancy political footwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.

　這些措施可以委婉地概括為“靈活性”措施。更直白的事實是，現有工作越容易被廢棄，新工作就越容易被創造。眼下這些保住人們飯碗的援助計劃會在今后成為調整適應今后形勢的拖累。隨著時間推移，用在保留

　人員舊崗位的指出需要削減，取而代之的是為新崗位培養勞動者的開支。各國政府需要從支持需求的政策轉變為建設一個更靈活的勞動力市場。這種轉變需要富有想象力的政治謀劃，但確實當政者們必須完成的步驟：因為如果他們不這樣做，增長將被遏制。

　However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight millions of lives for years. The politicians’ task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades.

　 然而，不論政府政策制定的多么完美，失業率在一段時間內仍將陡增。不過充其量它會在幾年內讓數百萬人的生計陷于困境。當政者的任務是不要讓這場不幸延續數十年。

?。ǘ?/p>

　China"s trade

　 Surplus to requirements 順差的需要

　Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?

　為什么中國的出口大幅下降時，貿易順差卻在增長？

　THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?

　 本周，修正后的數字顯示中國在 2007 年已經超越德國成為世界第三大經濟體。在去年初，中國也目標成為世界上最大的出口國，但是年末數月出口的大幅下落意味著他們仍然排在德國之后。按照美元來計算，中國的出口額在第四季度下降了 13%，比一年前同期少了 3%。盡管如此，中國的貿易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創紀錄的 4570 億美元，比 2007 年同期增長了 50%。這其中到底有何玄機？

　In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports).

　 2008 年上半年，中國的貿易順差確實出現了縮水（見表）。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進口跌的更慘——到 12 月時，12 個月內下跌了 21%。進出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因為信用凍結導致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價的原油和商品價格，以及原材料和用于出口產品的部件進口（占到進口總量的 50%以上）表現疲軟。

　But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.

　 但是關于中國進口下降的一個更令人憂慮的原因是：中國的國內需求減小。消費支出和生產投資目前的收縮尚且適當，但是建筑業作為進口原材料的使用大戶也出現了急劇下滑。

　With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.

　隨著全球大部分地區陷入衰退，中國的出口今年將繼續下滑。野村證券預測的下滑是 6%，為 25 年來的首次下滑。另一方面，進口預計將增長。到年中時，政府計劃的基礎設施投入大幅增長將會推動原材料和機械進口。這樣的話，中國 2009 年的貿易順差將會縮水。

　The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers. China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.

　出口劇減加上隨之而來的中國南方的失業會導致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國新政府的保護主義反彈，對生產者也幫助甚小。中國的問題是在于疲軟的國外需求，而不是競爭力。支持中國經濟乃至幫助全球貿易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強內需。

　One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.

　 本周的一個好消息是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到 12 月的 12 個月中從去年夏天的 14%猛增 19%。中國也許是最近幾個月內世界大經濟體中唯一出現信貸增長加速的地方。如果增速持續，它將促進內需支出。

　China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.

　 中國決不能再依賴出口。如果全球貿易持續下降，成為世界最大的出口國亦將無益。

?。ㄈ?/p>

　China"s stimulus

　 Got a light? 經濟復蘇已被點燃？

　China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work

　中國龐大的財政措施可能已經起效

　“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?

　中國有句民諺：“眾人拾柴火焰高。”隨著世界經濟陷入 70 年以來的最大危機，要重燃全球需求之火，各國都責無旁貸。美國政府計劃今年運行占國內生產總值 12%的財政赤字，并號召二十國集團的伙伴們作出更多行動。中國是其中的吝嗇鬼嗎？它在上周公布的預算顯示，中國計劃運行的財政赤字只占 GDP 的 3%。難道去年十一月公布的 4 億元用于基礎設施建設的措施——相當于 GDP 的 14%——僅僅是在忽悠？

　Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.

　 北京的刺激計劃小于去年公布的數字，但這依然是世界范圍內最大的經濟刺激方案。盡管美國運行的財政赤字是中國的四倍，但這并不意味著它的需求性刺激計劃就更大。美國從今年開始就保持了巨大的財政赤字，并且年內赤字增長將高于中國。這主要是因為美國遭受的經濟衰退極大地減少了稅收。財政刺激方案的正確措施應該是調整財政赤字以適應經濟圈的沖擊。

　In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.

　 然而在中國，經濟赤字掩蓋了真實的刺激方案，因為一些公共基礎設施投資是由銀行提供資金、國有公司或地方政府實施的。瑞銀的陶旺（音）預計，新的基礎設施建設、減稅、消費補貼以及醫療方面的投資增長將構成總額占到 GDP3%的 09 年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由銀行提供資金支持的基建支出，整個刺激方案將占到 GDP 的 4%。

　Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is

　the quickest way to boost domestic demand.

　中國在鐵路、公路和電網方面的投資已經大規模展開。今年頭兩個月內，固定投資總額較去年同期增長 30%，鐵路投資增長了 3 倍。很多批評認為，中國的刺激方案集中于投資而不是消費，但就短期來看，在中國這是提高國內需求最立竿見影的方式。

　What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.

　 那么作為提高國內消費另一手段的貨幣政策又運用的怎樣？從去年年初開始，中國已經將利率砍到美聯儲的一半。新的統計數字顯示，到二月，消費品價格較去年下降了 1.6%，從而帶來了第一輪通貨緊縮。這似乎意味著中國在提高需求方面做的尚且不夠。但其實，這并不是真正的通貨緊縮。真正的通縮情況下，貨幣供應和信貸會隨著物價下降而萎縮。去年，銀行借貸增長了 24%。對銀根放松的正確估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借貸產生。中國作為世界上少有的幾個國家，其借貸規模在全球信貸危機爆發后不降反升——盡管部分借貸是在國家指導下進行的。

　China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.

　中國不僅完成了規?？捎^的財政和銀根放松計劃，還通過讓人民幣在過去 12 個月內升值 18%（貿易加權考慮在內），部分促進了世界貨幣經濟增長。

　The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.

　 真正的問題是：中國的貿易刺激方案數量是否已經夠大？到今年二月，年出口額下降遠超預期，達 26%，并且可能繼續下挫。工業生產 12 個月增幅在 09 年頭兩個月已將至 3.8%，零售業增長放緩至 15%。但是仍然有一些國內需求復蘇的暫時性指標。除了投資和銀行貸款增長外，汽車銷售和電力消費同樣得到提振。野村證券的孫明春（音）認為，經濟刺激方案能夠實現 8%的年度經濟增長。但是政府已經明確表示，如果經濟持續疲軟，將會提供另外的財政提振方案。

　Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out.

　 這些注入或許可以把今年的經濟增長拉回到 8%，但如果全球需求持續悲觀，增速便難以維持。對于中國而言，出口轉內銷的需要已經更加緊迫。中國官員正確地表示，將會用數年時間增量投資公共衛生和社保體系以降低居民存款，使得這些政策的加速實施更加名正言順。否則，即便是中國的經濟火焰也會被撲滅。

?。ㄋ模?/p>

　The economy"s stumble 經濟的絆足

　Air pocket or second dip? 氣囊保護還是二次淪陷？

　Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition

　A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus 9 月經濟大跌，新刺激方案提上日程

　 AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures. Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%. Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired. Manufacturing activity cooled a bit.

　根據最新統計數據，從春季開始一路高歌猛進的美國經濟在 9 月大幅下跌。非農業職位減少了 26.3 萬個，降幅較 8 月增加了 6.2 萬個，失業率升至 9.8%，增幅 0.1%。汽車銷量在聯邦“舊車換現金”計劃結束后陡降。制造業略有放緩。

　All this is probably an air pocket; overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow. Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery. But it is taking a painfully long time. “We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released. To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought. That would raise the recession’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce. Assuming no further revisions, the recession now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War—exceeding even the 5% loss recorded in 1948.

　這一切或許是如“氣囊”一般的保護性反應；今年第三季度，經濟總量確已開始上升，就業率最終也將隨之跟進。證券市場以及新失業津貼政策等主要指標都預示著經濟的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。“我們需要逐步恢復經濟，”巴拉克•奧巴馬在就業數據發布的第二天（10 月 3 日）承認說。雪上加霜的是，勞動統計局表示，截至今年 5 月，美國經濟比預想的進一步減少了 82.4 萬個職位。這使得經濟衰退造成的總失業人數達到了 800萬，占勞動力的 5.8%。如果經濟停止進一步惡化，那這將是自二戰以來最嚴重的經濟衰退——其損失超過了1948 年所記載的 GDP 的 5%。

　The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic. More than half of businesses say they will not return to pre-recession staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist. Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months.

　更大的問題在于，就業一旦增加，它仍有可能持續疲軟。根據杜克大學及《CFO Magazine》雜志（與《The Economist》同屬一家公司）財務長在 9 月的一份報告，超過半數的公司表示即使其人員編制有所回升，但在2012 年之前不會回到衰退前的水平。共有 43%的公司計劃在未來的 12 個月中繼續裁減人手。

　Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy. These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year. More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance.

　奧巴馬先生和他的顧問們正考慮新的經濟提振措施，但其規模將不及今年 7870 億美元的刺激計劃，后者于明年年底之前將不遺余力的不斷向經濟注入資金?？赡苄愿蟮氖?，他將延續刺激方案中的某些條款，如下崗職工失業津貼擴面以及健康保險補助等。

　The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire. But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th. Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat. This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”. It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day. No one said his job was easy.

　“舊車換現金”計劃結束所帶來的汽車銷量下降預示了在諸如購房貸款等刺激措施期滿結束后經濟所將經歷的退縮癥狀。但是，如果繼續實行此類措施，那將會為 9 月 30 日截止的本財政年帶來預計高達 14 億美元的財政赤字。選民們對未來源源不斷的財政赤字憂心忡忡，甚至是奧巴馬先生的自由派支持者都在火上澆油。本周，眾議院議長南希•佩洛西表示，征收增值稅應該 “提上日程”。增值稅遲早會付諸實施。然而，過早的出臺此類稅收將有可能阻礙經濟恢復，同時，征收新稅將會為總統的勁敵們提供反擊機會。大家都知道，奧巴馬先生過得不容易。

?。ㄎ澹?/p>

　Signs of economic cheer 經濟振奮之征兆

　The sun also rises

　太陽照常升起

　Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition

　The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed 雖然美國經濟可能正從衰退中抽身而出，但是失業率仍然居高不下，慶祝理應押后。

　WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.

　 在早前的 2 月份，就職數周的奧巴馬總統到訪了印第安娜州的埃爾德哈特?？偨y此行籠罩著一層陰郁的氣氛，因為在此前的十二個月當中，當地的失業率達到了 18.3%，是原來的三倍還多?？偨y隨即懇求通過大規模財政刺激方案，并堅持說，“絕不能坐以待斃。”8 月 5 日，當再次來到埃爾德哈特時總統心情愉悅了一些，他表示本地工廠正在“恢復生機。” 幾天之前，他已經宣布了經濟已比預期有“顯著好轉”的消息。

　Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate. Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory. Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.

　奧巴馬的好精神是有根有據的，因為美國的衰退似乎正趨于結束。7 月 31 號的政府報告中指出，第二季度的國內生產總值雖然收縮，但僅為年率收縮 1%。而此收縮很大程度上反映了暫時閑置工廠和工人，用存貨交付訂單的商業決策?，F在存貨已經消耗殆盡，恢復生產勢在必行。

　The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%. An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years. Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production. Sales of existing houses have risen. Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.

　現有的很多 7 月份數據都為之前的預期--本季度 GDP 將會增長 3%，提供了有力支持。制造業活躍指數提升到了 8 月份以來最高，制造商報告說新訂單增長活躍，達到兩年來最佳水平；汽車銷量飆升 15%，按年率計達 1,120 萬輛，制造商也正在加大生產；現房的銷售量有所提升。就連備受折磨的埃爾德哈特也有喜訊傳來：在 8 月 4 號，一個名為 Dometic 的游藝車部件供應商說，在本地刺激因素的幫助下，公司將在本市增添 240個工作崗位。

　Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery. In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest. More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests. These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression.

　 為了刺激經濟復蘇，奧巴馬總統和他的助手們馬不停蹄地投入到了 7870 億美元的財政刺激計劃中。事實上，到目前為止這個刺激計劃似乎貢獻平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融體系的大規模公有資本注入，提供給金融體系的大量貸款和貸款擔保，以及今年春季的銀行壓力測試卻發揮了更大作用。這些措施阻止了急劇下滑的資產價格、信貸退出和銀行倒閉，將經濟從衰退滑向大蕭條的危急關頭中拉了回來。

　One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.

　最振奮人心的消息莫過于在 4 月到 5 月之間 S&P/Case-Shiller （美國房價的領先衡量標準）20 大城市房價指數僅下跌 0.2%，是兩年來最小幅度。穩定的房價對減少貸款拖欠會起到奇效，還可以支撐銀行的資產負債表，起到恢復信貸流動的作用。

　Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping. This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so. Unemployment usually responds

　to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s. But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.

　 消息有好有壞，奧巴馬總統的支持率雖然仍然算高，但是正處于下滑狀態，部分原因應歸咎于并無好轉的就業形勢（就業是一項最為重要的單一經濟基準），在經濟好轉的前提下這樣的就業形勢著實令人吃驚。經濟學家亞瑟歐坤在十九世紀六十年代捕捉到，失業率與經濟增長有關并通常隨之做出反應。但是在此次衰退中，失業率的上升幅度遠比歐坤法則的眾多公式推導出的幅度大的多。

　The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy. The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%). Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.

　 上周公布的 GDP 修改數據可以解釋一些不符之處。修改數據顯示自 2007 年底 GDP 累計下降 3.7%，可堪比發生在 1957 到 58 年自大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退（修改前的數據顯示下降僅為 2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的經濟學家邁克爾?費拉里說，按照歐坤法則預測第二季度的失業率應僅為 8.6%，而實際的失業率達到平均9.3%。

　Several factors are at work. Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed. The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.

　 成因存在于幾方面。擴大的失業保險收益鼓勵著一些人繼續尋找工作而不是徹底退出勞動大軍。根據美聯儲消息，這部分人口大約占失業率的 0.5%。做了財富切除手術的人們更可能選擇找工作而不是退休或回家帶孩子。

　And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls. Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch. Others may simply be more pessimistic about an eventual recovery. Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins. Robe...